Wednesday, August 29, 2012

The Only Statistics You Can Count On


I wish I had a nickel for every time I have been asked “what response rate can I expect from this type of product” or “do you have any statistics on someone else’s similar campaign”. Invariably when I am asked to quote on a direct marketing project I get asked these questions. In order to provide some kind of response to these questions, I maintain a few a case studies and I can always check The DMA’s or PODI/Caslon’s Response Rate Report or even the USPS’s Household Diary Study. But, the real question is should I?

I contend that it is impossible to predict with any degree of certainty how one campaign would perform versus another of the same type.

Why?

Even if the same direct marketing medium and offering are similar, that is where the similarity will end. Here are some of the key differences in all campaigns:

1) Differences in name recognition of the sender
2) Difference in copy, color, art/design
3) Difference in geography and demographics of the target audience
4) Timing of the offer
5) The number of touches and contact cycles employed

I’m sure that there are other differences, but these are significant enough to insure that one campaign result will not look like another.

So how should I answer the inevitable question regarding response rate or success?

The correct answer is that there is only one way to truly know how your campaign will perform.

That is to run your own campaign and analyze the results and then modify the campaign, using any of the above differences to try to improve the results. This is commonly known as testing.

If you ask any direct marketing pro what the secret of successful direct marketing is, their answer will invariably be “Test, Test, and Test”. This is another reason not to conduct “one and done campaigns”. They are rarely successful and even if you get lucky, they are probably not repeatable.

So while there are lots of statistics available and even a whole passel of case studies, I highly recommend that you use outside marketing expertise to help you create a winning campaign rather than predicting the outcome of your campaign before it runs.

If you would like more information, give me a call. Let me help you set up a marketing campaign that includes email notification when the delivery of the mail piece is imminent. These campaigns have real teeth and get much improved response rates.
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